The CBO just released a new report on Speaker John Boehner’s new bill, that still doesn’t paint a good picture.
The CBO said:
In total, if appropriations in the next 10 years are equal to the caps on discretionary spending and the maximum amount of funding is provided for the program integrity initiatives, CBO estimates that the legislation, with the proposed amendment, would reduce budget deficits by about $915 billion between 2012 and 2021 relative to CBO’s March 2011 baseline adjusted for subsequent appropriation action. As requested, CBO has also calculated the net budgetary impact if discretionary savings are measured relative to its January baseline projections. Relative to that baseline, CBO estimates that the legislation would reduce budget deficits by about $1.1 trillion between 2012 and 2021.
The legislation would:
Establish caps on discretionary spending through 2021,
Allow for certain amounts of additional spending for “program integrity”
initiatives aimed at reducing the amount of improper benefit payments,
Make changes to the Pell Grant and student loan programs,
Establish procedures for Congressional consideration of a balanced budget
amendment to the Constitution,
Establish procedures to increase the debt limit by up to $2.5 trillion,
Reinstate and modify certain budget process rules, and create a joint Congressional committee to propose further deficit reduction.
The National Review added:
We’re hearing it now cuts $917 billion over ten years under the more recent CBO baseline. So under $1 trillion. On the other hand, the cuts are apparently more front-loaded: $20 billion in real cuts in the first year.
UPDATE: Clarifying: We’re told the cut is $22 billion in fiscal year 2012 from the adjusted CBO baseline, and $42 billion in fiscal year 2013. Most of the change has to do with a technical adjustment one of our budget experts will have to explain. The new version preserves the 1:1 match in the first tranche of the debt increase, which leadership considers a very important benchmark for members. Leadership sounds increasingly optimistic about passage and even outsiders opposed to the Boehner plan have been predicting privately today that it will pass.
Here’s the official CBO report.